Povl Tiedemann, Head of Department, Danish Business Economists
As member of the input panel for the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, Danish Business Economists are granted access to the very first results of the 2008 survey (29th May sent).
Last year’s 3 primary observations are still in long term focus with (last years post on BizDeansTalk)
• Emergence of a new Middle Class.
• From cheap Manpower to cheap Brainpower.
• Low demography in Europe, Japan and Russia.
However, on the shorter term 3 observations from the actual version of the Competitiveness Roadmap are attracting attention as issues expected to have highest impact on the world’s competitive landscape during the mid 2020’ies:
US mortgage market in disarray:
Two million homes will be repossessed this year by banks. Mortgage-backed assets (MBAs) have become a bad name in finance. The Fed may have to buy back some of them directly.
Increased demand for food commodities:
As a consequence of the growth of emerging markets and changes in consumption patterns, prices for basic commodities such as rice, wheat or fish more than double. Shortages appear. World stocks of wheat are down from 18 to 12 weeks in one year.
China and India over consume raw materials:
China and India continue to over consume raw materials. China, for example, is now responsible for 19% of the world’s aluminium consumption, 20% of copper, 27% of steel, 31% of coal, 47% of cement – but only 8.5% of oil. The economic slowdown has a minor impact on the raw materials’ demand of emerging markets.
Again the IMD initiative delivers information with absolute demand for strategic reflection.
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